Fecundity and longevity of roaming dogs in Jaipur, India

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Estimates of demographic parameters, such as age-specific survival and fecundity, age at first pregnancy and litter size, are required for roaming dogs (i.e. dogs that are neither confined nor restricted) to assess the likely effect of proposed methods of population control. Data resulting from individual identification of dogs spayed as part of an Animal Birth Control (ABC) programme in Jaipur, India, are used to derive such parameters for the roaming dog population of that city.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The percentage of females becoming pregnant in any given year was estimated by inspection of over 25,000 females caught for spaying from 1995 to 2006. The point estimate is 47.5% with a 95% confidence interval from 44% to 51%. Adult annual survival of spayed females was estimated by recapture of 62 spayed females from 2002 to 2006. The point estimate is 0.70 (95% confidence interval from 0.62 to 0.78), corresponding to an expected total lifespan of 3.8 years for a spayed female at one year old.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Recording the pregnancy status of dogs collected for spaying and individual marking of dogs released following spaying can provide estimates of some of the demographic parameters essential for predicting the future effectiveness of an ABC programme. Further, we suggest that recording the number and location of spayed and unspayed dogs encountered by the catching teams could be the most effective way to monitor the size and composition of the roaming dog population.</p

Designing programs for eliminating canine rabies from islands: Bali, Indonesia as a case study

&lt;p&gt;Background: Canine rabies is one of the most important and feared zoonotic diseases in the world. In some regions rabies elimination is being successfully coordinated, whereas in others rabies is endemic and continues to spread to uninfected areas. As epidemics emerge, both accepted and contentious control methods are used, as questions remain over the most effective strategy to eliminate rabies. The Indonesian island of Bali was rabies-free until 2008 when an epidemic in domestic dogs began, resulting in the deaths of over 100 people. Here we analyze data from the epidemic and compare the effectiveness of control methods at eliminating rabies.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Methodology/Principal Findings: Using data from Bali, we estimated the basic reproductive number, R0, of rabies in dogs, to be ~1·2, almost identical to that obtained in ten–fold less dense dog populations and suggesting rabies will not be effectively controlled by reducing dog density. We then developed a model to compare options for mass dog vaccination. Comprehensive high coverage was the single most important factor for achieving elimination, with omission of even small areas (&#60;0.5% of the dog population) jeopardizing success. Parameterizing the model with data from the 2010 and 2011 vaccination campaigns, we show that a comprehensive high coverage campaign in 2012 would likely result in elimination, saving ~550 human lives and ~$15 million in prophylaxis costs over the next ten years.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Conclusions/Significance: The elimination of rabies from Bali will not be achieved through achievable reductions in dog density. To ensure elimination, concerted high coverage, repeated, mass dog vaccination campaigns are necessary and the cooperation of all regions of the island is critical. Momentum is building towards development of a strategy for the global elimination of canine rabies, and this study offers valuable new insights about the dynamics and control of this disease, with immediate practical relevance.&lt;/p&gt

Estimating the global burden of endemic canine rabies

Rabies is a fatal viral disease largely transmitted to humans from bites by infected animals —predominantly from domestic dogs. The disease is entirely preventable through prompt administration of post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) to bite victims and can be controlled through mass vaccination of domestic dogs. Yet, rabies is still very prevalent in developing countries, affecting populations with limited access to health care. The disease is also grossly underreported in these areas because most victims die at home. This leads to insufficient prioritization of rabies prevention in public health agendas. To address this lack of information on the impacts of rabies, in this study, we compiled available data to provide a robust estimate of the health and economic implications of dog rabies globally. The most important impacts included: loss of human lives (approximately 59,000 annually) and productivity due to premature death from rabies, and costs of obtaining PEP once an exposure has occurred. The greatest risk of developing rabies fell upon the poorest regions of the world, where domestic dog vaccination is not widely implemented and access to PEP is most limited. A greater focus on mass dog vaccination could eliminate the disease at source, reducing the need for costly PEP and preventing the large and unnecessary burden of mortality on at-risk communities.S1 Text. Supporting bibliography.S1 Table. Estimates by country of rabies deaths, exposures, PEP use, prevented deaths, dog vaccination coverage, probability that a dog is rabid (RP), of bite victims receiving PEP (PP), DALYs, costs and 95% confidence intervals of estimates. Clusters to which countries are assigned are shown and inputs used for estimating parameters including the human development index and whetehr a country s rabies-free or endemic (RISK). Estimates of years of life lost (YLL) and DALYs (due to rabies and to adverse events from the use of nerve tissue vaccines) are shown under different assumptions (estimates under the assumption of no time discounting or age-weighting should be directly comparable to the 2010 Global Burden of Disease study).S1 Fig. Division of costs associated with rabies, prevention and control across sectors by cluster. Inset shows proportional expenditure in different clusters. Full details of countries by cluster are given in S1 Table. Asia 4 comprises: Philippines, Sri Lanka, Thailand (High PEP use); Asia 3 comprises Bhutan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Pakistan (Himalayan region); Asia 2 comprises Cambodia, Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam and Democratic People’s Republic of Korea; SADC comprises countries in the Southern African Development Community, Eurasia comprises Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, the Russian Federation, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan.S1 Dataset. Model code and input data files including references, rationale and detail of Delphi process. The code folder contains seven R scripts: burden_model.R runs the model using data compiled in burden_1.R, after estimating parameters using: FitCovInc.R, FitPP.R, and creating Fig 2 (RabiesBurdenFig2.R). The script burden_results.R summarizes findings using the output of burden_model.R and burden_sensitivity.R runs the sensitivity analyses. The data folder contains 12 csv files called by the R code for the analyses, and one excel file (Vet. xlsx) with additional details about the data sources in vcountry2.csv and vcluster2.csv and with Delphi process estimates for dog vaccination coverage. Data sources are detailed in the relevant data sources and the details of the sources of data used in the analysis are in the supporting bibliography, S1 text.This study was funded by the UBS Optimus Foundation (http://www.ubs.com/optimusfoundation) and the Wellcome Trust (095787/Z/11/Z).http://www.plosntds.orgam201

A mark-resight survey method to estimate the roaming dog population in three cities in Rajasthan, India

1. Abstract Background Dog population management is required in many locations to minimise the risks dog populations may pose to human health and to alleviate animal welfare problems. In many cities in India, Animal Birth Control (ABC) projects have been adopted to provide population management. Measuring the impact of such projects requires assessment of dog population size among other relevant indicators. Methods This paper describes a simple mark-resight survey methodology that can be used with little investment of resources to monitor the number of roaming dogs in areas that are currently subject to ABC, provided the numbers, dates and locations of the dogs released following the intervention are reliably recorded. We illustrate the method by estimating roaming dog numbers in three cities in Rajasthan, India: Jaipur, Jodhpur and Jaisalmer. In each city the dog populations were either currently subject to ABC or had been very recently subject to such an intervention and hence a known number of dogs had been permanently marked with an ear-notch to identify them as having been operated. We conducted street surveys to record the current percentage of dogs in each city that are ear-notched and used an estimate for the annual survival of ear-notched dogs to calculate the current size of each marked population. Results Dividing the size of the marked population by the fraction of the dogs that are ear-notched we estimated the number of roaming dogs to be 36,580 in Jaipur, 24,853 in Jodhpur and 2,962 in Jaisalmer. Conclusions The mark-resight survey methodology described here is a simple way of providing population estimates for cities with current or recent ABC programmes that include visible marking of dogs. Repeating such surveys on a regular basis will further allow for evaluation of ABC programme impact on population size and reproduction in the remaining unsterilised dog population.</p

Improving and Evaluating Trap-Neuter-Return (TNR) Management for Outdoor Cats on the Human Landscape

The trap-neuter-return (TNR) method for outdoor cat management is widely utilized, but wildlife advocates have argued in recent years that TNR does not reduce cat population size and does not mitigate the threat of cat predation. In this article, we suggest that the current practice of TNR is rarely optimized for population control, and that its potential effectiveness for accomplishing population control has therefore not been clearly determined. We further suggest that it would be possible to implement larger-scale TNR “flagship” programs that are optimized for population management, and by doing so to more definitively assess the capabilities and limitations of TNR as a population management tool. This knowledge would provide a better basis for identifying situationally-appropriate management strategies through a consensus-building process

Key epidemiological and operational variables determining the success of rabies vaccination programmes in terms of the predicted probability of eradication (grey y–axis and line) and time to eradication (black y–axis, medians and 95% PI), showing sensitivity to: (A) the basic reproductive number, <i>R</i>₀, (B) vaccination coverage (achieved at the time and location of the campaign (see Fig. 4)), (C) annual dog population turnover, with conversion into birth/death rate assuming constant population size (birth rates equal to death rates), and (D) duration of immunity provided by vaccine.

<p>Based on 1000 simulations generated using parameters in <a href="http://www.plosntds.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pntd.0002372#pntd-0002372-t001" target="_blank">Table 1</a> (unless specified) and annual campaigns of the ‘random’ mass vaccination strategy (<a href="http://www.plosntds.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pntd.0002372#pntd-0002372-t002" target="_blank">Table 2</a>).</p

Parameters values and distributions used to model rabid dog movement and transmission processes.

<p>Parameters values and distributions used to model rabid dog movement and transmission processes.</p